The US Skilled Trades Shortage Just Got a Number: 1.3 Million

A new report from Lightcast has put a precise number on something the skilled trades industry has felt for years: the United States is short 1.3 million workers. Not eventually — right now. It's the kind of figure that's easy to skim past, so it's worth sitting with what's actually behind it, and what it means for anyone thinking about a career change.

The Scale of the Problem

Lightcast is one of the most widely cited labour-market data firms in the U.S., and its new research covers roughly 20 million skilled trades jobs — about 9% of everyone employed in the country. Employers post an estimated 2.1 million skilled trades job openings every year.

The shortfall shows up in one blunt ratio: for every person who finishes a relevant training program, there are about three open trades jobs waiting to be filled. That mismatch creates the 1.3 million worker gap.

The Numbers at a Glance

• 20 million U.S. jobs are in the skilled trades — about 9% of total employment
• 2.1 million skilled trades job openings each year
• Only 3 job openings for every person completing a relevant training program
• Retirements account for roughly 40% of annual openings
• Over a quarter of the current skilled trades workforce is 55 or older
• A 31% wage premium — around $13,000 more per year — over other non-degree occupations
• More than 70% of skilled trades occupations carry a low AI exposure score, meaning low automation risk

Why the Gap Keeps Widening

A big part of the pressure is demographic, not economic. Retirements alone account for roughly 40% of all annual openings, and more than a quarter of the current workforce is already 55 or older. As experienced tradespeople retire, they aren't being replaced anywhere near the rate they're leaving — and the training pipeline feeding new workers in is nowhere near wide enough to absorb the difference.

The Case Nobody's Making

What gets lost in most conversations about the trades shortage is that these are genuinely good jobs. Skilled trades work carries a 31% wage premium over other occupations that don't require a bachelor's degree, and more than 70% of trades occupations have an AI exposure score below 30% — making them some of the most automation-resistant careers available anywhere, at a moment when almost nothing else can claim that.

The gap isn't a lack of good jobs, or a lack of people who could do them. It's a lack of fast, credible paths in.

Closing the Gap Means Widening the Door

Most people don't choose against the trades because the work is unappealing — they choose against it because the way in isn't clear, especially if they didn't grow up around a trade and don't know where to start. That's the exact problem worth solving: building faster, more credible on-ramps for people making a career change later in life, not just school leavers.

The workers this shortage needs already exist. Right now, they're just doing something else.